What the Dom Post didn’t tell you about “Ohariu without Dunne” yesterday: The surprising truth on how to vote strategically with your Electorate Vote in Ohariu

Graeme from Johnsonville

Believe it or not, to get the best possible representation for Ohariu this Election, we’re all best NOT to cast our electorate vote for either the Labour or the National candidates! Why? Because on current polling, both look like both will easily be elected on their respective party lists. So voting for them would be a wasted opportunity to get a third “Ohariu” MP into parliament to maximize our electorates' representation in Parliament !

A week really IS a long time in politics: seven days ago, your electorate vote for Ohariu was critical to the make-up of the next parliament. But now that Peter Dunne is off the card, it literally does not matter even slightly. To put it plainly, the makeup of the next government will now NOT be affected by our choice of candidate for the Oharu electorate, not one iota!.

If Greg wins Ohariu, Labout get one less 'list" candidate. If Brett wins, National get one less 'list" candidate. Either way, the "balance of power" is identical. Either way, both Greg and Brett will be in parliament. That right: even if both these two “main party” candidates get zero Ohariu electorate votes each, they will still enter parliament, and could reasonably be expected to represent Ohariu in a “de-facto” manner as Ohariu based “list” MPs of many parties (Gareth Hughes, Kartina Shanks, Charles Chuval, and latterly Brett Hudson) have done very well over the last 20 years of MMP).

Here are the facts to back this: Greg O’Connor is Ranked at 41 on the Labour List, and so will enter parliament if Labour get 34% of the Party vote - (Labours latest poll result was 37% and is rising). Brett Hudson (Ranked at 30) will re-enter parliament if National get just 25% of the vote: (Nationals latest poll result was around 44%). So he is safe as houses.

As a staunch supporter of local democracy in the northern suburbs of Wellington, this leads me to ask the question: How could my electorate vote maximise the LOCAL representation for Ohariu in parliament? The answer is to give my electorate vote to a 'third party’ candidate – and there are at least a couple that warrant serious consideration. Only Jessica Hammond Daube (TOP) has hoardings out and seems to be actively campaigning for the electorate seat. She is a public policy professional, a working mum from and the only woman in the race: Tane Woodly (Greens) is a stand-up fellow, and Army Officer from Johnsonville, also with a young family, but he has stated he is standing to attract party votes, not electorate votes. Both are very long-term residents of the electorate (something I personally feel is essential in a local MP!) and neither will enter parliament on their party lists unless their respective parties get near 20% of the party vote – (and, on current polling, that’s utterly impossible for either of them).

Both Jessica and Tane were (almost) completely ignored in the Dominion Posts extensive coverage of the Ohariu race yesterday (Tane got a small picture in the paper - Jessica didnt get her photo in at all, so I post her image here to even that score!). The Dom Post articles also ignored the list ranking of all these candidates – a huge oversight. Your Party vote will (as always) determine the makeup of the Government, but it is your ELECTORATE VOTE that will determine whether Ohariu has either two or THREE M.P.s “representing” Ohariu.

So, that’s my 5 cents worth – I think we should all think about voting strategically to maximise representation for Ohariu when we vote in 5 weeks .

There are plenty of opportunities to see all these candidates in action over coming weeks: See The Johnsonville “meet the Candidates” meeting is scheduled for 7:30 pm this Wednesday 30 August in the Main Hall at the Johnsonville Community Centre, the entrance is on Moorefield Road. The formal meeting will start at 7:30, but the hall will start filling up from 7pm.

Other Candidates meetings are scheduled as follows: Wednesday 30 August -- Main Hall at the Johnsonville Community Centre (Moorefeild Rd.) 28 August 7:30pm – Terrace Centre, Johnsonville 6 September 7:00pm – Tawa Union Church 12 September 7:00pm – Ngaio Town Hall 13 September 1:00pm – Khandallah Town Hall 13 September 7:30pm – Khandallah Presbyterian Church 14 September 7:30pm – Ngaio Union Church