Hi Neighbours, If the long-distance bus terminal moves out of Sky City's complex, ratepayers will probably foot the bill. Ngāti Whātua opposes AT's plan to put it on their land. See below what it would look like, but should it stay where it is ?
For all those wondering about whether it is all worth it:
Unchecked the number of COVID-19 cases double every 2-3 days. That equates to 41 or 26% more cases every day.
As an exponential progression is very sensitive to initial variations (do you have 1 or 3 people infected on Mar 3rd?) I start the prediction on Mar 20th when there were 52 people infected (so the simulation is less affected by small variations in the initial numbers) and just bevor New Zealand declared Level 2 restrictions.
Column 1: Alert Level
Column 2: Date
Column 3: Number of cases
Column 4: what numbers should be assuming 2 day doubling time
Column 5: case numbers prevented by lockdown
Column 6: what numbers should be assuming 3 day doubling time
Column 7: case numbers prevented by lockdown
The results show that we have between 1,060 and 12,273 cases less than we would have without the lockdown.
Btw the red difference numbers in column 7 with the 3 day doubling time (essentially more infected with lockdown) are due to the virus doubling faster than 3 days, so the actual numbers are higher than the prediction assuming the slower 3 day doubling time … until NZ hit the brakes hard. Therefore the cases numbers would have been much higher than the 3 day prediction shows.