Immigration: Kiwi brain drain has peaked despite another year of record departures

Brian from Mount Roskill

Migrant departures reached a record 122,800 in the year to January 2025, up 18%.
Migrant arrivals were 155,300, down 31%, with a net migration gain of 32,500.
Economists warn low net migration could impact the housing market and economic recovery.
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The number of people leaving the country long-term hit another new record in the year to January – but monthly data suggests the brain drain has peaked.
Stats NZ provisional data for the January 2025 year (compared with January 2024) showed migrant departures up 18% to 122,800, the highest on record for an annual period.
Migrant arrivals, at 155,300 were down, 31% for the year.
There was an annual net migration gain of 32,500 (± 1500), compared with a net gain of 121,800.
Down from around 33,317 in the year to December, that was the lowest rate of net migration since 2014 (outside of the Covid-19 era).
In the past few weeks, economists have warned that low levels of net migration are providing a headwind for the residential housing market and may slow the overall economic recovery.
“Over the past few months, we’ve seen net migration stabilise at annualised rates around 25-35k. It leaves us with a view of positive but below average expansion in the population over the next 18 months or so,” BNZ chief economist Mike Jones said in a note last month.
“That adds to the list of factors likely to check the pace of recovery this year.”
Commenting on the latest numbers, ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted that weaker net immigration had “eroded a key leg of support for the New Zealand housing market, domestic demand, and labour market capacity”.
“Easing economic support from net immigration will weigh on economic growth and translate into greater spare capacity,” he said.
Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 234,800 in the year ended October 2023. Annual net migration peaked in the year ended October 2023 with a gain of 135,500.
For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss of 44,200 in the January 2025 year shows a stabilisation of the ‘brain-drain’ trend.
It was a slight improvement from a net migration loss of 44,700 Kiwis in the January 2024 year, and a loss of 44,375 for the year to December 2024.
The monthly data shows the rate of Kiwi departures peaked in the year to August 2024 when a net 47,147 departed long-term.
That was still high compared to an average annual net migration loss of 27,100 in the January years 2002 to 2013 and an average annual net migration loss of 7500 in the January years 2014 to 2019, Stats NZ said.
For migrant arrivals in the January 2025 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 25,800 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of New Zealand, 25,000; China, 17,600; and the Philippines, 14,000.
For migrant departures in the January 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were still the largest group, with 69,200 departures.
The next largest groups were citizens of China, 7900; India, 5800, and the United Kingdom, 4500.
Citizens of India, the Philippines, and China drove net migration gains in the January 2025 year, Stats NZ said.
Country of citizenship is the nationality of the passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.
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