Election 2023: Heartland electorate on the line as experienced political operators vie for Rangitata

Nicole Mathewson Reporter from The Press

In the lead-up to the 2023 general election, The Press is profiling Canterbury’s electoral races. Here’s what you need to know about the candidates running to be Rangitata’s MP. (By reporter Keiller MacDuff).

Rangitata is shaping up to be a battle royale, but it will be a big ask for incumbent Labour minister Jo Luxton to retain the deeply blue electorate, with some commentators already calling it for National party newcomer James Meager.

The electorate stretches along the eastern side of the South Island, from Timaru to the Rakaia River, and inland from the ocean to the Southern Alps. The predominately rural electorate encompasses Mid and South Canterbury, including Ashburton, Methven, Mt Somers, Temuka and Timaru, and skews slightly older - with more than one-quarter of its residents aged over 60, compared to one-fifth nationally.

It briefly existed for two separate parliamentary terms in the late 19th century, then was re-established for the 2008 election, largely replacing Aoraki and parts of the Rakaia electorate.

National’s Jo Goodhew was the first to represent the re-established electorate, holding it from 2008 until she decided not to contest the 2017 election.

National’s Andrew Falloon went on to a strong win, with a margin of 6331 votes, but resigned abruptly in July 2020 after he was alleged to have sent unsolicited images to young women.

Replaced just weeks before the 2020 election by then Environment Canterbury councillor Megan Hands, National lost the seat for the first time since its creation, with Luxton taking 4000 more votes than Hands.

Labour also increased its party vote share by 15 percentage points to 49% over National’s 40%, whose share dropped by more than 21% on 2017.

The electorate’s first meet the candidate event garnered national attention after Prime Minister Chris Hipkins highlighted comments by New Zealand First candidate Rob Ballantyne decrying “Māori elite” and saying “we are the party with the cultural mandate and the courage to cut out your disease and bury you permanently”.

Ballantyne has stood behind the comments, while NZ First leader Winston Peters enthusiastically endorsed them as coming “exactly from my speeches”.

A former early childhood teacher and business owner, Hinds-based Luxton first entered Parliament as a list MP in 2017. The grand-niece of iconic Labour Prime Minister Norm Kirk, she is associate minister of education and agriculture and minster of customs.

Consultant, former political adviser and press secretary James Meager (Ngāi Tahu) was selected to take over National’s candidacy in September 2022. The 36-year-old grew up in Timaru and now lives in Ashburton.

He has committed to starting work on a new Ashburton bridge in a National Government’s first term, reducing red tape and cutting tax. Well down the party list at 69, Meager will be relying on the electorate seat to get into Parliament.

There’s no disagreement on the need for the second bridge crossing, with both major parties committing to it.

Former Timaru District councillor, nurse and conservationist Barbara Gilchrist, vying for the Green vote, says her priorities are providing a guaranteed income, free dental care and supporting farmers to transition to sustainable agriculture.

Ballantyne, who runs an importing business (and is 16th on his party’s list), promises to remove “any regulations that are too difficult to comply with”, backs the new Ashburton bridge, and will give landowners and businesses “immunity from future Māori claims”.

ACT’s Rangitata candidate, Elaine Naidu Franz, resigned in August after it emerged she had compared Covid-19 mandates to concentration camps.

The rest of the candidates are Michael Clarkson, running for the unregistered Rock the Vote NZ party - which falls under the umbrella of Brian Tamaki and Sue Grey’s Freedom NZ coalition; Wayne Shearer, running for Liz Gunn’s New Zealand Loyal party; Karl Thomas (New Conservatives) and Dolf Van Amersfoot (New Nation Party).

Traditionally drawing strong voter turnout - 85% in 2020, compared to 82% nationally - Rangitata’s older population is keenly engaged, with over 60s averaging 90% and 91% turnout in 2017 and 2020 respectively.

Rangitata has the fourth-highest share of people identifying as Christian (43%) among the general electorates, and is predominantly European (87%) and Maori (9%), with one in 10 people (9%) identifying as either Asian or Pasifika.

The electorate ranked first in New Zealand for the number of residents working between 50 and 59 hours per week (15%), and families whose income was between $70,000 and $100,000 (23%).

A fifth of the population are labourers, while 16% work in manufacturing – the second-highest shares among electorates.