L
44 days ago

COVID statistics

Len from Hillsborough - Lepperton

I thought it might be reassuring to share some of the data around Covid risk that we don't seem to see in the news. While it is undoubtedly a serious health concern for some at the moment, it is also important to keep the risk in perspective for the sake of personal mental health wellbeing. Despite what seems to make the news, we are very unlikely to die from this virus, or even show serious to critical symptoms. The following link is the raw data on country statistics comparing testing rates, case fatality rates, recovery rates for the 5 million reported cases so far www.worldometers.info... . You can see how NZ ranks globally on these metrics (somewhere in the middle of 215 countries for most measures). The data focuses on reported cases, which as the following link explains, overestimates frequency for the worst case outcomes. The link goes to the Oxford University Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (do your own research on how credible you think they are) which analyses the case data, and uses health records and studies on what was known about SARS/ MERS/ Swine flu to estimate what the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Covid-19 is likely to be (as opposed to the less reliable Case Fatality Rate (CFR)) www.cebm.net... . Draw your own conclusions but these sites show either factual information or use data science to provide a risk profile. In summary the estimated IFR for Covid is between 0.1% to 0.41% (i.e. chance of survival 99.6-99.9% for person selected at random). While this is also age dependent, the estimated IFR for otherwise healthy 70+ age group is still likely less than 1%. Some interesting points also made about selection bias, and coding of cases and outcomes that skew the reported results.

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4 hours ago

Subscribe to Sunday Star Times

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P
7 days ago

Airport Company wants another $20M !

Peter from New Plymouth

I was one of those invisible ratepayers who made submissions to the NPDC about our new $30M airport.

It was neither needed nor warranted in my opinion, our Mayor on the other hand opined that " it would keep the tills ringing" . So hows that going Neil?

While we were assured that it would not ever be a burden on the ratepayer, no sir not ever, it was entirely predictable that it would be given the councils, any councils, history of dabbling in commerce. It was just a matter of when and how!

And now they want another $20 million or so. Outrageous.
Its time the council was called to account and some resignations tendered . I'll hold my breath.

12 hours ago

Next issue of Get Growing ezine - coming next week!

Reporter NZ Gardener & Get Growing

Hi neighbours, the next issue of Get Growing will now be released early next week, so keep your eyes peeled! In the meantime you can read all previous editions here, so dig in and enjoy!

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