Interest Rates: RBNZ OCR
2pm Wed 28 Feb, the RBNZ will unveil its eagerly awaited OCR decision, marking the first such announcement since 29 Nov 2023. What can we anticipate?
The RBNZ has adopted a hawkish stance, signaling potential rate hikes amidst concerns over domestic inflation - a sentiment echoed by ANZ's Chief Economist, NZ's largest bank.
Contrastingly, the majority of economists have taken a dovish position, cautioning against rate increases. They underscore the impacts of the successive rate hikes (+4.25%) over the past 2.5yrs and the softening underlying GDP, despite robust migration figures.
Adding to the complexity, our Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, has characterized the nation's current state as "fragile."
Market sentiment have been oscillating. Wholesale market funding rates experienced a -1.16% decline from 4 Oct to 29 Dec 2023, (refer to 2yr swap rate graphic). However, since then, they have rebounded, increasing +0.57%. Concurrently, retail mortgage rates have seen some reduction but not to the same extent.
Market dynamics are influenced by a plethora of factors, including local and international data releases like employment figures, inflation rates, and GDP growth. Moreover, commentary from influential figures - sometimes referred to as "jawboning" - can significantly sway market sentiment.
Ultimately, the RBNZ holds the reins, but it's far from a predetermined outcome.
If you are seeking independent guidance on your refix, restructuring, or refinancing options, reach out to adviceHQ today.
#advicehq #RBNZ #ocr #interestrates #mortgagerates
Some Choice News!
Many New Zealand gardens aren’t seeing as many monarch butterflies fluttering around their swan plants and flower beds these days — the hungry Asian paper wasp has been taking its toll.
Thanks to people like Alan Baldick, who’s made it his mission to protect the monarch, his neighbours still get to enjoy these beautiful butterflies in their own backyards.
Thinking about planting something to invite more butterflies, bees, and birds into your garden?
Thanks for your mahi, Alan! We hope this brings a smile!
Poll: Are our Kiwi summer holidays helping us recharge, or holding the economy back? ☀️🥝
There’s growing debate about whether New Zealand’s extended Christmas break (and the slowdown that comes with it) affects productivity.
Tracy Watkins has weighed in ... now it’s your turn. What’s your take? 🤔
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73% We work hard, we deserve a break!
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17.5% Hmm, maybe?
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9.5% Yes!
Have you seen Rowena?
Police are urgently appealing for sightings of Rowena, 39, reported missing from Christchurch.
She was reported missing to Police on 22 October 2025, and was last seen on 14 August 2025. Rowena hasn’t been in contact with her children and her family are worried for her safety.
Police investigating her disappearance have identified her as being in Auckland, Tauranga and Christchurch in the recent months prior to her missing person report being made.
If you have seen Rowena, or have any information regarding her whereabouts, please contact us immediately.
You can contact us via 105 either over the phone or online at 105.police.govt.nz, clicking “Update Report” and referencing file number 251022/9026.
Information can also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.
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