We look at COVID-19 case numbers in New Zealand, in particular since 31 October.

The first positive case of COVID-19 in the current (Delta) outbreak was identified in the community on 17 August 2021.

Our total number of confirmed cases was 2,570. These cases occurred over 17.5 months (the first case was on 28 February 2020).

The current Delta outbreak has now been continuing for 81 days, for three months in 10 days time. Towards the end of October case numbers since the 2020 pandemic began had doubled since before the Delta outbreak started.

We  have had over 1,000 community cases in the last 8 days, almost all in Auckland.

This suggests we could have 1,000 cases in 7 days or over 50,000 cases over 12 months in Auckland.

Auckland has around 32% of New Zealand’s population. If the trend continues and extends to the whole of New Zealand, we could have 150,000 cases in a twelve-month period.

This is not a worst-case scenario. For a worst-case scenario, this number may have to at least double, perhaps quadruple.

Milestones:

• On 7 November 7,095 total confirmed cases since the pandemic began; 4,352 community cases  in current outbreak
• On 31 October over 6,000 confirmed cases (6,068) since the pandemic began; 3,348 community cases in current community outbreak; over 1,000 community cases in 8 days
• On 6 November we had the highest number of community cases in one day ever, 206 cases, 200 of these in Auckland
• On 5 November the total number of community cases in this outbreak reached over 4,000 cases (4,034)

For the case numbers below, see:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases

On 7 November:

On 6 November:

On 5 November

On 31 October

Also see:

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=Spring+Spruce+up

https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67132277

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